On 22 September 2016, the Caspian Center for Energy and Environment of ADA University hosted a presentation on Statoil’s “Energy Perspectives 2016: Long-Term Macro and Market Outlook”, in the format of a roundtable discussion followed by a discussion. Mr. Eirik Wærness, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Statoil, presented scenarios for 2040.
Statoil’s annual Energy Perspectives report describes how the world economy and energy markets will develop based on the three different scenarios: Reform, Renewal and Rivalry. According to the presenter, the most ambitious scenario is Renewal, which assumes that nine out of ten private cars sold in 2040 will be hybrid or electric cars, and therefore there may be a transformation in the energy sector. The transformation, assumes Mr. Wærness, will mean that sun and wind accounts for around 40 percent of global energy generation in 2040 compared to 5 percent at present, while the demand to oil and gas will be lower than current levels. Similarly, the Reform scenario is ambitious, but based on the national climate targets as per the Paris Agreement, and measures energy and climate policy change over time.
The last scenario, Rivalry, is based on measuring the impact of geopolitical conflict and larger differences in regional development with regard to economic development and transformation in energy systems. The scenario requires major investments in the whole energy sector by 2040.
In sum, the assumption based on the current realities, according to the presenter, is that we will see increasing changes in the global energy mix, and a paradigm shift to Renewal in the next two decades.
The power point presentation can be found in English and Azerbaijani languages here.