On 13 May 2016, the Caspian Center for Energy and Environment of ADA University organized an event with Spencer Dale, BP’s Group Chief Economist, who is responsible for advising BP’s Board and executive team on economic drivers and trends in global energy.
The presentation on BP’s Energy Outlook 2016 revealed the company’s perspectives on the “most likely” path for energy demand based on assumptions about future changes in policy, technology and the economy. The presenter discussed perspectives towards 2035, using three alternative scenarios: slower global GDP growth; a faster transition to a lower-carbon world; and a situation where shale oil and gas have even greater potential. Despite the uncertainties in the global market, Mr. Spencer stressed that the oil market gradually rebalances, with the current low level of prices boosting demand and dampening supply. The interesting aspect is that gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel supported by strong supply growth, particularly of US shale gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and by environmental policies.
The presenter also touched on renewables, which according him, are experiencing rapid growth, set to almost quadruple by 2035, and supply a third of the growth in power generation.
More information on the presentation and roundtable discussion can be found in English here.