May 23-26, 2015 – OPEC oil supply is expected to rise

OPEC supply is expected to increase by 0.2-0.3 million barrels per day (bpd) between now and end-3Q2015, analysts of the US JP Morgan bank said in a report, obtained by Trend.

OPEC supply growth has slowed from end- 1Q2015 level of 1.4 million bpd year-over-year, analysts said.

At the same time they expect non-OPEC supply to contract by 0.5 million bpd between now and end-3Q2015.

Analysts mentioned that Brent FUTURES PRICES last week stayed in a $64-$68 per barrel range.

“Unsurprisingly, OIL MARKET volatility has retraced back to seven-month lows, despite a pop higher mid-week,” they said.

 OIL PRICES on Friday have fallen over supply concerns following escalating geopolitical disturbance in the Middle East. July Brent crude fell $0.25 to $66.29 a barrel while US WTI for July decreased by $0.27 cents to $60.45 a barrel.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC oil supply rose by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 31.21 million bpd in April – the highest since September 2012, and nearly 1.4 million bpd above a year earlier – as Iraq and Iran boosted output and top exporter Saudi Arabia held flows above 10 million bpd.

The current quota for OPEC oil production is set at 30 million bpd.

OPEC member countries will hold a meeting in Vienna on June 5 to talk over the OIL MARKET situation and decide on the need of changes in production quotas.

Last week Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said OPEC is unlikely to change its production ceiling during the upcoming meeting.

“Lowering OPEC’s production ceiling requires consensus between all members … under current conditions it seems unlikely that the OPEC production ceiling will change,” Zanganeh said.